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History has demonstrated reversion to the mean.  **JB**

A recession is inevitable, according to Joe Zidle, of Richard Bernstein Advisors, as the yield curve eventually inverts and stocks cool.

A Wall Street portfolio strategist who urged investors to believe the rally is now predicting the bull market's eventual demise — and it has nothing to do with Washington politics.

Another data point that Advisors should be having downside risk conversations with their clients.  **JB**

• The spread between bulls and bears hasn't been this high since early 1987, shortly before the Black Monday market crash, according to the latest Investors Intelligence reading.
• Bulls in this week's survey totaled 63.5 percent against just 14.4 percent for bears. A spread above 30 points signals "elevated risk" while 40 points calls for "defensive measures."

The roaring stock market has professional investors riding high, so much so that it's rekindling memories of the 1987 crash.

Many Financial Advisors are looked to by their clients to explain market conditions.  Here is a slideshare that may be useful to distill into a high level explanation to your clients.

see slideshare now

Note the insightful comment on checking out from "Hotel Easy Money".  **JB**

For all the hype about bitcoin, far more investors are exposed to an $8 trillion bubble in financial markets.

It's all the government and corporate bonds that still have negative yields eight years after the financial crisis, according to Torsten Sløk, the chief international economist at Deutsche Bank.

This is not normal, and it is a legacy of the amount of stimulus that global central banks had to pump into their economies after the recession, partly by buying massive amounts of government bonds. Investors bought these bonds for their perceived safety and because some institutions like banks were required to.

China's growth numbers came in essentially as expected with fixed government investment being pulled back, offset by stronger retail and business investment - which is good.  The big event to watch is the party conference coming up.  China's current leadership is expected to consolidate authority.  **JB**

BEIJING--China's economy slowed in the third quarter of the year, as Beijing's efforts to cut debt levels and curb property speculation started to eat into overall growth.

China's gross domestic product expanded by 6.8% in the July-September period from a year earlier, decelerating from a 6.9% gain in the first half of the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. The figure matched a forecast by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Professor Thaler 's prestigious award aligns with our experiences with investors.  We deliver disciplined, endowment-style investment strategies precisely because of investor's innate behavioral tendencies he identified.  **JB**

By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM

OCT. 9, 2017

Optimal Capital's CIO Jay Batcha provides insights in ETF.com

There’s a bull in the bond market—and it’s bad for investors.

At least, it’s bad for investors who depend on bonds for income. As bond prices rise, their yields inherently fall, meaning interest payments to bondholders get smaller and smaller.

This is the best analysis I've read on validity and usefulness of CAPE  **JB**

Sep 21, 2017 ROBERT J. SHILLER

The US stock market today looks a lot like it did at the peak before all 13 previous price collapses. That doesn't mean that a bear market is imminent, but it does amount to a stark warning against complacency.

NEW HAVEN – The US stock market today is characterized by a seemingly unusual combination of very high valuations, following a period of strong earnings growth, and very low volatility. What do these ostensibly conflicting messages imply about the likelihood that the United States is headed toward a bear market?

Insightful commentary on dividend investing.  **JB**

By Eric Ervin, CEO Reality Shares

Much has been written about the importance of dividends in investing, and dividends have historically been a significant contributor to total return. As the following chart shows, nearly 40% of the total return of the S&P 500 can be attributed to reinvested dividends and the power of compounding.

Dec. 1994 through Sep. 2015. Source: Bloomberg. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Endowment-style investing is what we do - here's another data point on why it's differentiating for smart Advisors.  **JB**

If the saying, “the rich get richer,” holds any truth, there is probably a reason for that. As wealth increases, so can access to information and new opportunities. This is especially true in the world of investing where access to certain managers or investment opportunities is often off-limits to average investors either due to manager-imposed minimums or financial industry regulations.